World

Prediction markets vs. polls: Election forecasting industry faces midterm test

Prediction markets and pollsters both say Democrats are favored to take both the US House and Senate in the midterms. Prediction markets have been a little less certain about it, though traders’ odds jumped on Tuesday on the chances of Democrats taking control of the Senate. That's setting up what could be another chapter in the burgeoning rivalry between prediction markets and polls following 2024's closely watched results. The differences have been most evident in the upper chamber. A small bu